Centre for Economics and Business Research comments on interest rate
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The Cebr has forecast that the next move in UK interest rates is likely to be down.
The London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (cebr) has forecast that the next move in UK interest rates is likely to be down.In a new report, the cebr suggests that the cost of borrowing will fall from 4.75 per cent to 4.5 per cent this winter and slip further to 4.25 per cent during 2006. If the economy continues to weaken, the organisation suggests that interest rates may move down to hit a low of four per cent in 2007.
The centre's Quarterly Business Forecasts suggest that chancellor Gordon Brown's Budget forecast of three to 3.5 per cent economic growth in 2005 is likely to be significantly out, with GDP rising by just 2.4 per cent in 2005.
Inflation is currently nudging the Bank of England's target of two per cent, but the cebr predicts that it will subside to 1.7 per cent next year, as oil and utility prices rise more slowly.
The cebr expects the current consumer slowdown to continue, driven by higher taxes, uncertainty about house prices, the impact of a world economic slowdown and the end of the Treasury's expansive public spending.
Assuming that there are only minor adjustments in the measurement of UK GDP by the Office for National Statistics, Britain may achieve expansion beyond that of the euro, but behind that of the United States.
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